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January 23, 2009
Posted: 1448 GMT
LONDON, England – The dust has settled after yesterday's Oscar nominations. We know everything in terms of the final five in each category - but for many of the awards we are only left with guesswork as to the likely winners come February 22. Oscar likes to surprise - only in hindsight, once the awards have been handed out, can we determine why the Academy voted as it did. 
The Oscar nominations for best picture are announced in Beverly Hills Thursday.
 Making Oscar predictions is a game for fools - but it's also lot of fun, something we need in the current climate. Give me your suggestions at the bottom of this post - and in the meantime I'd offer the following... No movie will make a clean sweep. "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," with 13 nominations, heads the field, with "Slumdog Millionaire" behind it on 10. This only reflects how "Curious" has acting nominations while "Slumdog" does not: these two are running close. The certainty in the main categories is Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight") for best supporting actor - not just for his performance or because he died but also because he would have won an Oscar eventually. The likeliest challenge? Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt"), who beat Ledger to a best actor Oscar in 2006. But it would be a major upset. The best actor is Mickey Rourke's to lose for "The Wrestler." Oscar likes a comeback - Rourke's only hindrance is if the prize is taken for granted by everyone, in which case Oscar could choose someone else. Academy winner Sean Penn, who expands his range through the powerful and tender "Milk," is in the wings waiting for him to fall. The biggest nomination shock is in best actress and the exclusion of Kate Winslet for "Revolutionary Road" (it lost out in best film and director too), for which she won a best actress drama Golden Globe. Still, the five-time nominee will win her first Oscar for "The Reader," in which she was wrongly pushed for supporting actress. Strongest challenges come from two-time winner Meryl Streep ("Doubt") and Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married"), who between them have dominated critics' awards. Best supporting actress is more open (although why no Rosemarie DeWitt for "Rachel?"). Amy Adams and Viola Davies (both "Doubt") will cancel each other out; and "The Wrestler's" Marisa Tomei may suffer due to Rourke's likely success. Expect Penelope Cruz to win for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona," Woody Allen's overly-mannered drama. The best picture and best director usually go to the same movie. The tussle here is between Danny Boyle's colorfully kinetic "Slumdog" and David Fincher for "Curious." Trailing third is "Frost/Nixon," which feels more like a series of strong performances than the complete package. Crowdpleaser "Slumdog" stands out in a season of autumnal features tinged with regret and loss. It's also hard to ignore the technical challenges faced by Boyle for the Mumbai shoot. Remember - less than six months ago "Slumdog" was bound for DVD in the United States. Plans to shoot "Curious" have kicked around Hollywood for years - usually not a good sign. But Fincher, who usually deals in darker fare, does a strong job of sustaining the narrative for more than 150 minutes. Actors are strongly represented in the Academy - and "Curious" is unlikely to win any acting awards. Will voters compensate this retool of Oscar-winner "Forrest Gump" elsewhere - maybe give it a director or picture plaudit and "Slumdog" the other? Don't rule it out. Of course this is all conjecture. One, or all, of these tips, is plain wrong. Oscar is unpredictable - that's part of its appeal But who do you think should win this year's Oscars - and who do you think has unjustly been left out? Posted by: CNN digital producer, Nick Hunt |
 
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The Screening Room brings you the inside track on all aspects of the movie business around the globe. Find out what goes on behind the scenes as we cover major film festivals and premieres and meet the directors and actors that matter.  Recent Posts
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